Fermat's Library | World Scientists’ Warning of a Climate Emergency annotated/explained version.

The first "World Scientists' Warning to Humanity" was written in 19...

William J. Ripple is a professor of ecology at Oregon State Univers...

The full list is obviously very long...It can be found here: https:...

In 1979 at the First World Climate Conference, governments were cal...

"The Paris Agreement’s central aim is to strengthen the global resp...

Viewpoint

8 BioScience • January 2020 / Vol. 70 No. 1 https://academic.oup.com/bioscience

World Scientists’ Warning of a Climate Emergency

WILLIAM J. RIPPLE, CHRISTOPHER WOLF, THOMAS M. NEWSOME, PHOEBE BARNARD, WILLIAM R. MOOMAW,

AND 11,258 SCIENTIST SIGNATORIES FROM 153 COUNTRIES (LIST IN SUPPLEMENTAL FILE S1)

cientists have a moral obligation 

to clearly warn humanity of any

catastrophic threat and to “tell it like

it is.” On the basis of this obligation

and the graphical indicators presented

below, we declare, with more than

11,000 scientist signatories from

around the world, clearly and unequiv-

ocally that planet Earth is facing a

climate emergency.

Exactly 40 years ago, scientists from

50 nations met at the First World

Climate Conference (in Geneva 1979)

and agreed that alarming trends for

climate change made it urgently neces-

sary to act. Since then, similar alarms

have been made through the 1992 Rio

Summit, the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, and

the 2015 Paris Agreement, as well as

scores of other global assemblies and

scientists’ explicit warnings of insuf-

ficient progress (Ripple et al. 2017). Yet

greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are

still rapidly rising, with increasingly

damaging effects on the Earth’s cli-

mate. An immense increase of scale in

endeavors to conserve our biosphere is

needed to avoid untold suffering due

to the climate crisis (IPCC 2018).

Most public discussions on climate

change are based on global surface

temperature only, an inadequate mea-

sure to capture the breadth of human

activities and the real dangers stem-

ming from a warming planet (Briggs

et al. 2015). Policymakers and the

public now urgently need access to a

set of indicators that convey the effects

of human activities on GHG emis-

sions and the consequent impacts on

climate, our environment, and society.

Building on prior work (see supple-

mental file S2), we present a suite of

graphical vital signs of climate change

over the last 40 years for human activi-

ties that can affect GHG emissions and

change the climate (figure 1), as well

as actual climatic impacts (figure 2).

We use only relevant data sets that are

clear, understandable, systematically

collected for at least the last 5 years,

and updated at least annually.

The climate crisis is closely linked to

excessive consumption of the wealthy

lifestyle. The most affluent countries

are mainly responsible for the his-

torical GHG emissions and generally

have the greatest per capita emissions

(table S1). In the present article, we

show general patterns, mostly at the

global scale, because there are many

climate efforts that involve individ-

ual regions and countries. Our vital

signs are designed to be useful to

the public, policymakers, the busi-

ness community, and those working

to implement the Paris climate agree-

ment, the United Nations’ Sustainable

Development Goals, and the Aichi

Biodiversity Targets.

Profoundly troubling signs from

human activities include sustained

increases in both human and rumi-

nant livestock populations, per capita

meat production, world gross domes-

tic product, global tree cover loss,

fossil fuel consumption, the number

of air passengers carried, carbon diox-

ide (CO

) emissions, and per capita

emissions since 2000 (figure 1,

supplemental file S2). Encouraging

signs include decreases in global fer-

tility (birth) rates (figure 1b), decel-

erated forest loss in the Brazilian

Amazon (figure 1g), increases in the

consumption of solar and wind power

(figure 1h), institutional fossil fuel

divestment of more than US$7 tril-

lion (figure 1j), and the proportion

of GHG emissions covered by car-

bon pricing (figure 1m). However, the

decline in human fertility rates has

substantially slowed during the last

20 years (figure 1b), and the pace of

forest loss in Brazil’s Amazon has now

started to increase again (figure 1g).

Consumption of solar and wind energy

has increased 373% per decade, but

in 2018, it was still 28 times smaller

than fossil fuel consumption (com-

bined gas, coal, oil; figure 1h). As

of 2018, approximately 14.0% of

global GHG emissions were covered

by carbon pricing (figure 1m), but

the global emissions-weighted aver-

age price per tonne of carbon dioxide

was only around US$15.25 (figure 1n).

A much higher carbon fee price is

needed (IPCC 2018, section 2.5.2.1).

Annual fossil fuel subsidies to energy

companies have been fluctuating, and

because of a recent spike, they were

greater than US$400 billion in 2018

(figure 1o).

Especially disturbing are concur-

rent trends in the vital signs of cli-

matic impacts (figure 2, supplemental

file S2). Three abundant atmospheric

GHGs (CO

, methane, and nitrous

oxide) continue to increase (see

figure S1 for ominous 2019 spike in

), as does global surface tempera-

ture (figure 2a–2d). Globally, ice has

been rapidly disappearing, evidenced

by declining trends in minimum sum-

mer Arctic sea ice, Greenland and

Antarctic ice sheets, and glacier thick-

ness worldwide (figure 2e–2h). Ocean

heat content, ocean acidity, sea level,

area burned in the United States,

and extreme weather and associated

damage costs have all been trending

upward (figure 2i–2n). Climate change

is predicted to greatly affect marine,

freshwater, and terrestrial life, from

plankton and corals to fishes and for-

ests (IPCC 2018, 2019). These issues

highlight the urgent need for action.

Despite 40 years of global climate

negotiations, with few exceptions, we

have generally conducted business

Downloaded from https://academic.oup.com/bioscience/article-abstract/70/1/8/5610806 by guest on 17 January 2020

Viewpoint

https://academic.oup.com/bioscience January 2020 / Vol. 70 No. 1 • BioScience 9

as usual and have largely failed to

address this predicament (figure 1).

The climate crisis has arrived and is

accelerating faster than most scientists

expected (figure 2, IPCC 2018). It is

more severe than anticipated, threat-

ening natural ecosystems and the fate

of humanity (IPCC 2019). Especially

worrisome are potential irreversible

climate tipping points and nature’s

reinforcing feedbacks (atmospheric,

marine, and terrestrial) that could lead

to a catastrophic “hothouse Earth,”

well beyond the control of humans

(Steffen et al. 2018). These climate

Figure 1. Change in global human activities from 1979 to the present. These indicators are linked at least in part to

climate change. In panel (f), annual tree cover loss may be for any reason (e.g., wildfire, harvest within tree plantations,

or conversion of forests to agricultural land). Forest gain is not involved in the calculation of tree cover loss. In panel (h),

hydroelectricity and nuclear energy are shown in figure S2. The rates shown in panels are the percentage changes per

decade across the entire range of the time series. The annual data are shown using gray points. The black lines are local

regression smooth trend lines. Abbreviation: Gt oe per year, gigatonnes of oil equivalent per year. Sources and additional

details about each variable are provided in supplemental file S2, including table S2.

Downloaded from https://academic.oup.com/bioscience/article-abstract/70/1/8/5610806 by guest on 17 January 2020

Viewpoint

10 BioScience • January 2020 / Vol. 70 No. 1 https://academic.oup.com/bioscience

chain reactions could cause significant

disruptions to ecosystems, society, and

economies, potentially making large

areas of Earth uninhabitable.

To secure a sustainable future, we

must change how we live, in ways that

improve the vital signs summarized

by our graphs. Economic and popu-

lation growth are among the most

important drivers of increases in CO

emissions from fossil fuel combustion

(Pachauri et al. 2014, Bongaarts and

O’Neill 2018); therefore, we need bold

and drastic transformations regarding

economic and population policies. We

suggest six critical and interrelated

steps (in no particular order) that gov-

ernments, businesses, and the rest of

Figure 2. Climatic response time series from 1979 to the present. The rates shown in the panels are the decadal change

rates for the entire ranges of the time series. These rates are in percentage terms, except for the interval variables (d, f, g,

h, i, k), where additive changes are reported instead. For ocean acidity (pH), the percentage rate is based on the change

in hydrogen ion activity, a

(where lower pH values represent greater acidity). The annual data are shown using gray

points. The black lines are local regression smooth trend lines. Sources and additional details about each variable are

provided in supplemental file S2, including table S3.

Downloaded from https://academic.oup.com/bioscience/article-abstract/70/1/8/5610806 by guest on 17 January 2020

Viewpoint

https://academic.oup.com/bioscience January 2020 / Vol. 70 No. 1 • BioScience 11

humanity can take to lessen the worst

effects of climate change. These are

important steps but are not the only

actions needed or possible (Pachauri

et al. 2014, IPCC 2018, 2019).

Energy

The world must quickly implement

massive energy efficiency and conser-

vation practices and must replace fos-

sil fuels with low-carbon renewables

(figure 1h) and other cleaner sources

of energy if safe for people and the

environment (figure S2). We should

leave remaining stocks of fossil fuels

in the ground (see the timelines in

IPCC 2018) and should carefully pur-

sue effective negative emissions using

technology such as carbon extraction

from the source and capture from

the air and especially by enhancing

natural systems (see “Nature” section).

Wealthier countries need to support

poorer nations in transitioning away

from fossil fuels. We must swiftly elim-

inate subsidies for fossil fuels (figure

1o) and use effective and fair policies

for steadily escalating carbon prices to

restrain their use.

Short-lived pollutants

We need to promptly reduce the emis-

sions of short-lived climate pollutants,

including methane (figure 2b), black

carbon (soot), and hydrofluorocar-

bons (HFCs). Doing this could slow

climate feedback loops and poten-

tially reduce the short-term warming

trend by more than 50% over the next

few decades while saving millions of

lives and increasing crop yields due to

reduced air pollution (Shindell et al.

2017). The 2016 Kigali amendment to

phase down HFCs is welcomed.

Nature

We must protect and restore Earth’s

ecosystems. Phytoplankton, coral reefs,

forests, savannas, grasslands, wetlands,

peatlands, soils, mangroves, and sea

grasses contribute greatly to sequestra-

tion of atmospheric CO

. Marine and

terrestrial plants, animals, and micro-

organisms play significant roles in car-

bon and nutrient cycling and storage.

We need to quickly curtail habitat

and biodiversity loss (figure 1f–1g),

protecting the remaining primary and

intact forests, especially those with

high carbon stores and other forests

with the capacity to rapidly sequester

carbon (proforestation), while increas-

ing reforestation and afforestation

where appropriate at enormous scales.

Although available land may be limit-

ing in places, up to a third of emissions

reductions needed by 2030 for the

Paris agreement (less than 2°C) could

be obtained with these natural climate

solutions (Griscom et al. 2017).

Food

Eating mostly plant-based foods while

reducing the global consumption of ani-

mal products (figure 1c–d), especially

ruminant livestock (Ripple et al. 2014),

can improve human health and signifi-

cantly lower GHG emissions (including

methane in the “Short-lived pollutants”

step). Moreover, this will free up crop-

lands for growing much-needed human

plant food instead of livestock feed,

while releasing some grazing land to

support natural climate solutions (see

“Nature” section). Cropping practices

such as minimum tillage that increase

soil carbon are vitally important. We

need to drastically reduce the enormous

amount of food waste around the world.

Economy

Excessive extraction of materials and

overexploitation of ecosystems, driven

by economic growth, must be quickly

curtailed to maintain long-term sus-

tainability of the biosphere. We need

a carbon-free economy that explic-

itly addresses human dependence on

the biosphere and policies that guide

economic decisions accordingly. Our

goals need to shift from GDP growth

and the pursuit of affluence toward

sustaining ecosystems and improving

human well-being by prioritizing basic

needs and reducing inequality.

Population

Still increasing by roughly 80 million

people per year, or more than 200,000

per day (figure 1a–b), the world

population must be stabilized—and,

ideally, gradually reduced—within a

framework that ensures social integrity.

There are proven and effective policies

that strengthen human rights while

lowering fertility rates and lessening

the impacts of population growth on

GHG emissions and biodiversity loss.

These policies make family-planning

services available to all people, remove

barriers to their access and achieve

full gender equity, including primary

and secondary education as a global

norm for all, especially girls and young

women (Bongaarts and O’Neill 2018).

Conclusions

Mitigating and adapting to climate

change while honoring the diversity

of humans entails major transforma-

tions in the ways our global society

functions and interacts with natural

ecosystems. We are encouraged by a

recent surge of concern. Governmental

bodies are making climate emergency

declarations. Schoolchildren are strik-

ing. Ecocide lawsuits are proceeding

in the courts. Grassroots citizen move-

ments are demanding change, and

many countries, states and provinces,

cities, and businesses are responding.

As the Alliance of World Scientists,

we stand ready to assist decision-mak-

ers in a just transition to a sustainable

and equitable future. We urge wide-

spread use of vital signs, which will

better allow policymakers, the pri-

vate sector, and the public to under-

stand the magnitude of this crisis,

track progress, and realign priorities

for alleviating climate change. The

good news is that such transforma-

tive change, with social and economic

justice for all, promises far greater

human well-being than does business

as usual. We believe that the prospects

will be greatest if decision-makers and

all of humanity promptly respond to

this warning and declaration of a cli-

mate emergency and act to sustain life

on planet Earth, our only home.

Contributing reviewers

Franz Baumann, Ferdinando Boero,

Doug Boucher, Stephen Briggs, Peter

Downloaded from https://academic.oup.com/bioscience/article-abstract/70/1/8/5610806 by guest on 17 January 2020

Viewpoint

12 BioScience • January 2020 / Vol. 70 No. 1 https://academic.oup.com/bioscience

Carter, Rick Cavicchioli, Milton Cole,

Eileen Crist, Dominick A. DellaSala,

Paul Ehrlich, Iñaki Garcia-De-Cortazar,

Daniel Gilfillan, Alison Green, Tom

Green, Jillian Gregg, Paul Grogan, John

Guillebaud, John Harte, Nick Houtman,

Charles Kennel, Christopher Martius,

Frederico Mestre, Jennie Miller, David

Pengelley, Chris Rapley, Klaus Rohde,

Phil Sollins, Sabrina Speich, David

Victor, Henrik Wahren, and Roger

Worthington.

Funding

The Worthy Garden Club furnished

partial funding for this project.

Project website

To view the Alliance of World

Scientists website or to sign this arti-

cle, go to https://scientistswarning.

forestry. oregonstate.edu.

Supplemental material

Supplemental data are available at

BIOSCI online. A list of the signatories

appears in supplemental file S1.

References cited

Briggs S, Kennel CF, Victor DG. 2015. Planetary

vital signs. Nature Climate Change 5: 969.

Bongaarts J, O’Neill BC. 2018. Global warming

policy: Is population left out in the cold?

Science 361: 650–652.

Griscom BW, et al. 2017. Natural climate solu-

tions. Proceedings of the National Academy

of Sciences 114: 11645–11650.

[IPCC] Intergovernmental Panel on Climate

Change. 2018. Global Warming of 1.5°C: An

IPCC Special Report. IPCC.

[IPCC] Intergovernmental Panel on Climate

Change. 2019. Climate Change and Land. IPCC.

Pachauri RK, et al. 2014. Climate Change 2014:

Synthesis Report. Intergovernmental Panel

on Climate Change.

Ripple WJ, Smith P, Haberl H, Montzka SA,

McAlpine C, Boucher DH. 2014. Ruminants,

climate change, and climate policy. Nature

Climate Change 4: 2–5.

Ripple WJ, Wolf C, Newsome TM, Galetti M,

Alamgir M, Crist E, Mahmoud MI, Laurance

WF. 2017. World scientists’ warning to human-

ity: A second notice. BioScience 67: 1026–1028.

Shindell D, Borgford-Parnell N, Brauer M, Haines

A, Kuylenstierna J, Leonard S, Ramanathan

V, Ravishankara A, Amann M, Srivastava L.

2017. A climate policy pathway for near- and

long-term benefits. Science 356: 493–494.

Steffen W, et al. 2018. Trajectories of the Earth

System in the Anthropocene. Proceedings

of the National Academy of Sciences 115:

8252–8259.

William J. Ripple (bill.ripple@oregonstate.edu)

and Christopher Wolf (christopher.wolf@

oregonstate.edu) are affiliated with the

Department of Forest Ecosystems and Society

at Oregon State University, in Corvallis and

contributed equally to the work. Thomas M.

Newsome is affiliated with the School of Life

and Environmental Sciences at The University

of Sydney, in Sydney, New South Wales,

Australia. Phoebe Barnard is affiliated with the

Conservation Biology Institute, in Corvallis,

Oregon, and with the African Climate and

Development Initiative, at the University of Cape

Town, in Cape Town, South Africa. William R.

Moomaw is affiliated with The Fletcher School

and the Global Development and Environment

Institute, at Tufts University, in Medford,

Massachusetts.

doi:10.1093/biosci/biz088

Downloaded from https://academic.oup.com/bioscience/article-abstract/70/1/8/5610806 by guest on 17 January 2020

The first "World Scientists' Warning to Humanity" was written in 1992 by Henry W. Kendall and signed by 1,700 leading scientists, including the majority of the Nobel laureates in the sciences. In November 2017, 15,364 scientists signed World Scientists' Warning to Humanity: A Second Notice written by William J. Ripple. This is the Third Notice, and is also led by William Ripple. For more background: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Scientists%27_Warning_to_Humanity "The Paris Agreement’s central aim is to strengthen the global response to the threat of climate change by keeping a global temperature rise this century well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase even further to 1.5 degrees Celsius. Additionally, the agreement aims to increase the ability of countries to deal with the impacts of climate change, and at making finance flows consistent with a low GHG emissions and climate-resilient pathway." Source: https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/what-is-the-paris-agreement In 1979 at the First World Climate Conference, governments were called "to foresee and prevent potential man-made changes in climate that might be adverse to the well-being of humanity." William J. Ripple is a professor of ecology at Oregon State University in the Department of Forest Ecosystems and Society, and has led the Second and Third versions of a "World Scientists' Warning of a Climate Emergency." His bio: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_J._Ripple The full list is obviously very long...It can be found here: https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/bioscience/70/1/10.1093_biosci_biz088/1/biz088_supplemental_file_s1.pdf?Expires=1582225835&Signature=18PxKcXn6s7cEDUb5uzpW4SQ1SPmweydwmsYJoMIVaOfKtkCTJ1JlAj0NeZGlE3sIj-fhK2uH072mGKoORy6rwHrKQsx6vulFn8dbBus-CsHg16xIwkNYjnRx7M55Fg~K76zxMM3RFjNPEn4AxBLgZeCSg5CXCSsn12CKdHV~J5OOMQvDNFU7ekFAEltW1NqtpfatnXYqtE2imUMtH2LmfjQio5GoEe-U8slLAShmp2J712pVTf8nwT4YG3K-hNy~gUw4UXJ1l7BGCgMzThTkZWEfN0XQJNMzE8hq61XNdOxXpywFsBFtzL8MT1bz74JEllkGDMwGP6mYZJXnfBlBA__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA

Comments

Products

Project